The Role of Highly-Resolved Gust Speed in Simulations of Storm Damage in Forests at the Landscape Scale: A Case Study from Southwest Germany

نویسندگان

  • Christopher Jung
  • Dirk Schindler
  • Axel Tim Albrecht
  • Robert W. Talbot
چکیده

Routinely collected booking records of salvaged timber from the period 1979–2008 were used to empirically model the (1) storm damage probability; (2) proportions of storm-damaged timber and (3) endemic storm damage risk in the forest area of the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg by applying random forests. Results from cross-validated predictor importance evaluation demonstrate that the relative impact of modeled gust speed fields on the predictive accuracy of the random forests models was greatest compared to the impact of forest and soil features. Forest areas prone to storm damage occurring within a period of five years were mainly located in mountainous upland regions where maximum gust speed exceeds 31 m/s in a five-year return period and conifers dominate the tree species composition. While mean storm damage probability continuously increased with increasing statistical gust speed proportions of storm-damaged timber peaked at a statistical maximum gust speed value of 29 m/s occurring in a five-year return period. Combining the statistical gust speed field with daily gust speed fields of two exceptional winter storms improved model accuracy and considerably increased the explained variance. Endemic storm damage risk was calculated from endemic storm damage probability and proportions of endemically storm-damaged timber. In combination with knowledge of local experts the storm damage risk modeled in a 50 m ˆ 50 m resolution raster dataset can easily be used to identify areas prone to storm damage and to adapt silvicultural management regimes to make forests more windfirm.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Pervasive Growth Reduction in Norway Spruce Forests following Wind Disturbance

BACKGROUND In recent decades the frequency and severity of natural disturbances by e.g., strong winds and insect outbreaks has increased considerably in many forest ecosystems around the world. Future climate change is expected to further intensify disturbance regimes, which makes addressing disturbances in ecosystem management a top priority. As a prerequisite a broader understanding of distur...

متن کامل

بالاترین بارش محتمل24 ساعته و تاثیر آن در مخاطرات هیدرولوژیکی منطقه جنوب غرب خزر

Understanding the climate of a region as a first step and most immediate action is considered research for development projects Climatic phenomena such as floods every year irreparable damage to the soil, pastures, forests, urban and rural facilities, human and animal import Climatic phenomena such as floods every year irreparable damage to the soil, pastures, forests, urban and rural facilitie...

متن کامل

Investigation of the Role of Different Land Uses in a Sand Storm by using Wind Rose and Storm Rose (Case Study: Kashan)

The purpose of this research is to analyze anemometer data to study the wind regime in Kashan and to investigate the role of different land uses in sand storms. Therefore, anemometer data obtained from synoptic station of Kashan were analyzed during a 40-year period (1966-2005) using different methods. Seasonal and annual wind roses and storm roses for different lands were created using WRPlot ...

متن کامل

Analysis of the Effect of Climatic Parameters and Meteorological Droughts on the Variation of Internal Dust Events (A Case Study: Qazvin City)

The occurrence of wind erosion and the spread of dust particles can be regarded as one of the most important and threatening environmental factors. Climate change and the frequency of droughts have played an important role in exacerbating or weakening these events. The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the trend of changes in four important climatic elements (precipitati...

متن کامل

The role of Low level jet and determining the trajectory in the Persian Gulf dust storm (case study: 17-19 February, 2017)

Dust is a natural process in the desert areas. Strong winds on the dry soil surface make the particulate matter suspended in the air near the ground. In recent years, the influence of several natural factors has led to the further spread of dust in the western and southwestern parts of Iran. A storm take placed in the Khuzestan province and the northwest of the Persian Gulf, in February 17-19, ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2016